Everyday life
I built a Popperian Falsification Prompt to stop LLM confirmation bias (Testing your plans against plausible black swans)
Subjects a plan or hypothesis to a risk audit and Popperian stress test, returning exactly 3 plausible real-world black-swan failure scenarios, the precise threshold where the logic becomes unsustainable, and the contradiction revealed by an extreme case. Use it before acting on a plan to receive a final RESISTENT or FALSIFIED verdict.
- Tested with:
- GPT-4o
- Effectiveness:
- 90/100
- Prompt archive
English version
Act as a Risk Auditor and Popperian Philosopher. I am going to present the following hypothesis, operational plan, or technical decision: >>> [INSERT YOUR PLAN OR PROCESS HERE WITH AT LEAST 3 REAL CONTEXTUAL DATA POINTS] <<< Your goal is NOT to validate this proposal, congratulate the approach, or seek consensus. Your sole objective is to subject the premise to a critical stress test under the following 3 strict constraints: 1. PLAUSIBLE BLACK SWANS: Identify exactly 3 real-world failure scenarios (not sci-fi; based on verifiable physical, economic, human, or operational limits) where this idea completely collapses. 2. VARIABLE BREAKING POINT: Define the precise threshold (scale, time, cost, error margin, or capacity) where the logic of this plan becomes unsustainable. 3. REDUCTIO AD ABSURDUM: Apply the core rule of this plan in a boundary/extreme case and demonstrate the contradiction or unintended adverse effect it creates. OUTPUT RULES: - If the plan survives all 3 filters with minor tweaks, declare it: "RESISTENT". - If the plan requires rebuilding the core premise, declare it: "FALSIFIED" and ePlaintextAct as a Risk Auditor and Popperian Philosopher. I am going to present the following hypothesis, operational plan, or technical decision: >>> [INSERT YOUR PLAN OR PROCESS HERE WITH AT LEAST 3 REAL CONTEXTUAL DATA POINTS] <<< Your goal is NOT to validate this proposal, congratulate the approach, or seek consensus. Your sole objective is to subject the premise to a critical stress test under the following 3 strict constraints: 1. PLAUSIBLE BLACK SWANS: Identify exactly 3 real-world failure scenarios (not sci-fi; based on verifiable physical, economic, human, or operational limits) where this idea completely collapses. 2. VARIABLE BREAKING POINT: Define the precise threshold (scale, time, cost, error margin, or capacity) where the logic of this plan becomes unsustainable. 3. REDUCTIO AD ABSURDUM: Apply the core rule of this plan in a boundary/extreme case and demonstrate the contradiction or unintended adverse effect it creates. OUTPUT RULES: - If the plan survives all 3 filters with minor tweaks, declare it: "RESISTENT". - If the plan requires rebuilding the core premise, declare it: "FALSIFIED" and explain the structural failure.
Fill in and run
- Open in ChatGPT (opens in a new tab)
- Open in Claude (opens in a new tab)
- Open in Gemini (opens in a new tab)
Gemini cannot receive the prompt through a link, so copy it first.
- Open in Perplexity (opens in a new tab)
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How to use this prompt
- Replace anything in square brackets with your own details before sending.
- Results differ between models. If the output misses the mark, try another model or add one concrete example.
- Keep the prompt in one message. Splitting it across turns weakens the instructions.
